🔍 Catrix Daily | May 25, 2026
🤖 AI Forecast
BTC: Neutral ➡️ | ETH: Bearish 📉
10-year real yield Z=+2.51 (100th pct, 26W high) — bonds keep paying their best in half a year. Risk assets compete from behind.
💡 Today's Focus: Market Cycle
Where are we in the cycle? Two gauges. MVRV: avg holder's profit/loss vs cost basis (>1 = winning, <1 = underwater). NUPL: how confident the crowd feels (negative = capitulation). When both flash low, you're closer to a floor than a top.
→ BTC: STH NUPL (Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized P/L): -0.042 — recent buyers just slipped underwater while overall NUPL stays in optimism. A split rarely seen outside accumulation phases. LTH added +142k BTC in 30D, scooping what STH dropped.
→ ETH: MVRV (Market Value / Realized Value): 0.91 — average holder 9.2% underwater. NUPL=-0.01, deep capitulation. Historically near floors, but ETF bled -221K ETH/30D. Price is cheap; demand isn't here.
Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz
🤖 AI Forecast
BTC: Neutral ➡️ | ETH: Bearish 📉
10-year real yield Z=+2.51 (100th pct, 26W high) — bonds keep paying their best in half a year. Risk assets compete from behind.
💡 Today's Focus: Market Cycle
Where are we in the cycle? Two gauges. MVRV: avg holder's profit/loss vs cost basis (>1 = winning, <1 = underwater). NUPL: how confident the crowd feels (negative = capitulation). When both flash low, you're closer to a floor than a top.
→ BTC: STH NUPL (Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized P/L): -0.042 — recent buyers just slipped underwater while overall NUPL stays in optimism. A split rarely seen outside accumulation phases. LTH added +142k BTC in 30D, scooping what STH dropped.
→ ETH: MVRV (Market Value / Realized Value): 0.91 — average holder 9.2% underwater. NUPL=-0.01, deep capitulation. Historically near floors, but ETF bled -221K ETH/30D. Price is cheap; demand isn't here.
Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz
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🔍 Catrix Daily | May 26, 2026
🤖 AI Forecast
BTC: Slightly Bullish 📈 | ETH: Slightly Bearish 📉
10-year real yield Z=+2.51 stays at a 26W high, but Fed liquidity ticked up +3.6% in 4W. Macro tug-of-war alive — and on-chain, someone's quietly picking up coins.
💡 Today's Focus: Supply Structure
Are patient investors buying or selling? Tracks "old money" (wallets idle 5+ months) adding to bags vs short-term holders folding. When old money absorbs what new money panic-sells — that's a supply rotation, not a top.
→ BTC: STH (Short-Term Holder) Supply Δ30d: -155K BTC — recent buyers shed a chunk while LTH (Long-Term Holder) absorbed +142K BTC (~$11B). 91% size symmetry. Coins didn't leave the network — they just changed hands to stronger ones.
→ ETH: Supply in Profit: 40.8% — only 4 in 10 ETH wallets above water, 23rd pct of 180D. Stable, not collapsing. Holders stuck, not selling. Silent stalemate.
Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz
🤖 AI Forecast
BTC: Slightly Bullish 📈 | ETH: Slightly Bearish 📉
10-year real yield Z=+2.51 stays at a 26W high, but Fed liquidity ticked up +3.6% in 4W. Macro tug-of-war alive — and on-chain, someone's quietly picking up coins.
💡 Today's Focus: Supply Structure
Are patient investors buying or selling? Tracks "old money" (wallets idle 5+ months) adding to bags vs short-term holders folding. When old money absorbs what new money panic-sells — that's a supply rotation, not a top.
→ BTC: STH (Short-Term Holder) Supply Δ30d: -155K BTC — recent buyers shed a chunk while LTH (Long-Term Holder) absorbed +142K BTC (~$11B). 91% size symmetry. Coins didn't leave the network — they just changed hands to stronger ones.
→ ETH: Supply in Profit: 40.8% — only 4 in 10 ETH wallets above water, 23rd pct of 180D. Stable, not collapsing. Holders stuck, not selling. Silent stalemate.
Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz
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Catrix Daily | May 27, 2026
AI Forecast
BTC: Slightly Bullish 📈 | ETH: Slightly Bearish 📉
10-year real yield Z=+2.31 (100th pct, 26W high). Bonds keep paying. But Fed net liquidity ticked +3.6% in 4W — money's flowing in even as yields stay elevated.
Today's Focus: Exchange Balance
How much crypto sits on exchanges, ready to be dumped at a moment's notice? When coins flow IN, it's like inventory piling on the shelf — sell-side supply building. When they flow OUT, someone took chips off the table for cold storage. The direction often front-runs price.
→ BTC: Exch Bal (Exchange Balance) Δ30d: +30,393 BTC, Z=+2.23 — biggest 90-day deposit pressure. Inventory's stacking. But absolute exchange holdings stay near multi-year lows. Deposits up, but the shelf's still mostly empty.
→ ETH: Exch Bal Δ30d: +5.2% (~$1.5B inflow), Z=+1.66 — sell-side stacks. Yet whales just bought +212K ETH ($438M) in 7 days. Two opposite signals on one chart.
Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz
AI Forecast
BTC: Slightly Bullish 📈 | ETH: Slightly Bearish 📉
10-year real yield Z=+2.31 (100th pct, 26W high). Bonds keep paying. But Fed net liquidity ticked +3.6% in 4W — money's flowing in even as yields stay elevated.
Today's Focus: Exchange Balance
How much crypto sits on exchanges, ready to be dumped at a moment's notice? When coins flow IN, it's like inventory piling on the shelf — sell-side supply building. When they flow OUT, someone took chips off the table for cold storage. The direction often front-runs price.
→ BTC: Exch Bal (Exchange Balance) Δ30d: +30,393 BTC, Z=+2.23 — biggest 90-day deposit pressure. Inventory's stacking. But absolute exchange holdings stay near multi-year lows. Deposits up, but the shelf's still mostly empty.
→ ETH: Exch Bal Δ30d: +5.2% (~$1.5B inflow), Z=+1.66 — sell-side stacks. Yet whales just bought +212K ETH ($438M) in 7 days. Two opposite signals on one chart.
Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz
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🔍 Catrix Daily | Jun 1, 2026
🤖 AI Forecast
BTC: Slightly Bearish 📉 30/100 | ETH: Neutral ➡️ 43/100
Fed liquidity expanded +2.7% in 4 weeks, but the yield curve just hit a 26-week low — tap's open, the plumbing's tightening.
💡 Today's Focus: Market Cycle
Where are we in the cycle? MVRV = price vs. average cost basis. NUPL = aggregate profit mood. Both low or negative = capitulation zone — historically one of the better times to be patient.
→ BTC: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value): 1.36 — price above cost basis, but STH NUPL (Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized P/L): -0.085 — recent buyers collectively at a loss. F&G (Fear & Greed): 28, deep fear. Fair price. Scared crowd.
→ ETH: MVRV: 0.87 — average holder underwater. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): -0.05, capitulation. 35% of supply in profit, 180-day low. Holding at a loss and not selling. That's not panic — that's a floor forming.
Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz
🤖 AI Forecast
BTC: Slightly Bearish 📉 30/100 | ETH: Neutral ➡️ 43/100
Fed liquidity expanded +2.7% in 4 weeks, but the yield curve just hit a 26-week low — tap's open, the plumbing's tightening.
💡 Today's Focus: Market Cycle
Where are we in the cycle? MVRV = price vs. average cost basis. NUPL = aggregate profit mood. Both low or negative = capitulation zone — historically one of the better times to be patient.
→ BTC: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value): 1.36 — price above cost basis, but STH NUPL (Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized P/L): -0.085 — recent buyers collectively at a loss. F&G (Fear & Greed): 28, deep fear. Fair price. Scared crowd.
→ ETH: MVRV: 0.87 — average holder underwater. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): -0.05, capitulation. 35% of supply in profit, 180-day low. Holding at a loss and not selling. That's not panic — that's a floor forming.
Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz
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🔍 Catrix Daily | Jun 3, 2026
🤖 AI Forecast
BTC: Slightly Bearish 📉 31/100 | ETH: Slightly Bearish 📉 33/100
Fed liquidity +2.7% in 4W, but yield curve hit a 26-week floor (Z=-3.71) — recession risk at its highest reading this cycle.
💡 Today's Focus: Whale Holdings
Where are the big bags going? Tracks exchange balance changes — coins moving IN = sell-side supply stacking up. Mega-whale behavior (10k+ BTC wallets) often front-runs price direction.
→ BTC: Exchange Net Position (30D): +64,967 BTC (Z=3.12) — extreme inflows, highest in 90 days. Mega-whale (10k+ BTC holders) Z=-2.41, distributing hard. $4.33B worth of BTC just moved toward the exit door.
→ ETH: Exchange Balance Δ30d: +563K ETH (~$1.05B) — sustained deposits all month. Only 32.1% of supply in profit. Holders are in pain and coins keep flowing to exchanges.
Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz
🤖 AI Forecast
BTC: Slightly Bearish 📉 31/100 | ETH: Slightly Bearish 📉 33/100
Fed liquidity +2.7% in 4W, but yield curve hit a 26-week floor (Z=-3.71) — recession risk at its highest reading this cycle.
💡 Today's Focus: Whale Holdings
Where are the big bags going? Tracks exchange balance changes — coins moving IN = sell-side supply stacking up. Mega-whale behavior (10k+ BTC wallets) often front-runs price direction.
→ BTC: Exchange Net Position (30D): +64,967 BTC (Z=3.12) — extreme inflows, highest in 90 days. Mega-whale (10k+ BTC holders) Z=-2.41, distributing hard. $4.33B worth of BTC just moved toward the exit door.
→ ETH: Exchange Balance Δ30d: +563K ETH (~$1.05B) — sustained deposits all month. Only 32.1% of supply in profit. Holders are in pain and coins keep flowing to exchanges.
Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz
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That would put SpaceX above Meta’s market cap, and far beyond Visa or Netflix.
Target price: $135/share. Roadshow starts tomorrow.
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Catrix Daily | Jun 4, 2026
AI Forecast
BTC: Bearish 📉 24/100 | ETH: Bearish 📉 27/100
Fed liquidity +2.7% in 4W, but yield curve Z=-3.71 — deepest recession signal in 6 months. Faucet's open; the pipe might already be broken.
Today's Focus: Institutional Flow
Who's moving the big money? Tracks US spot ETF net flows and Coinbase premium (does the US pay more or less than global prices?). Both negative = Wall Street heading for the exit.
→ BTC: ETF (Spot BTC ETF) Net Flow 30D: -59,893 BTC (Z=-3.24) — extreme exodus, strongest institutional outflow this quarter. F&G (Fear & Greed): 11, extreme fear. The professionals are leaving, not just rotating.
→ ETH: ETF (Spot ETH ETF) Net Flow 30D: -394K ETH (Z=-2.23). Coinbase Premium (Coinbase Price vs Global): -0.19 (Z=-2.50) — US selling at the steepest discount in the dataset. No absorption in sight.
Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz
AI Forecast
BTC: Bearish 📉 24/100 | ETH: Bearish 📉 27/100
Fed liquidity +2.7% in 4W, but yield curve Z=-3.71 — deepest recession signal in 6 months. Faucet's open; the pipe might already be broken.
Today's Focus: Institutional Flow
Who's moving the big money? Tracks US spot ETF net flows and Coinbase premium (does the US pay more or less than global prices?). Both negative = Wall Street heading for the exit.
→ BTC: ETF (Spot BTC ETF) Net Flow 30D: -59,893 BTC (Z=-3.24) — extreme exodus, strongest institutional outflow this quarter. F&G (Fear & Greed): 11, extreme fear. The professionals are leaving, not just rotating.
→ ETH: ETF (Spot ETH ETF) Net Flow 30D: -394K ETH (Z=-2.23). Coinbase Premium (Coinbase Price vs Global): -0.19 (Z=-2.50) — US selling at the steepest discount in the dataset. No absorption in sight.
Full analysis on our AI report 👇
insight.catrix.xyz
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Catrix Daily | Jun 5, 2026
BTC down 21% this month. Are you buying the dip or waiting for more pain?
AI Forecast
BTC: Bearish 📉 28/100 | ETH: Slightly Bearish 📉 31/100
Real yields at a 6-month high (96th pct) — the macro backdrop isn't helping. Fed liquidity flat. No wind at crypto's back right now.
Today's Focus: Macro Liquidity
→ BTC: Real Yield Z=1.62, F&G: 12 (extreme fear) — holding BTC has rarely competed with higher "safe" returns this cycle. The wall is real.
→ ETH: Yield Curve Z=-2.19, stablecoin reserves -19.8% this month — the sideline cash that usually buys dips is gone.
insight.catrix.xyz
BTC down 21% this month. Are you buying the dip or waiting for more pain?
AI Forecast
BTC: Bearish 📉 28/100 | ETH: Slightly Bearish 📉 31/100
Real yields at a 6-month high (96th pct) — the macro backdrop isn't helping. Fed liquidity flat. No wind at crypto's back right now.
Today's Focus: Macro Liquidity
→ BTC: Real Yield Z=1.62, F&G: 12 (extreme fear) — holding BTC has rarely competed with higher "safe" returns this cycle. The wall is real.
→ ETH: Yield Curve Z=-2.19, stablecoin reserves -19.8% this month — the sideline cash that usually buys dips is gone.
insight.catrix.xyz
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Catrix Daily | Jun 6, 2026
ETH at 13/100. Is this panic or the bottom everyone's been waiting for?
AI Forecast
BTC: Bearish 📉 22/100 | ETH: Extreme Bearish 📉 13/100
Real yields still at a 6-month high (96th pct), stablecoin reserves down 21% this month — the sideline cash is gone and macro isn't helping.
Today's Focus: Derivatives
→ BTC: 25D Skew (Options Put/Call Imbalance): +0.22 — heavy put demand. But 3M futures basis hit 100th pct contango. Sellers and smart money pulling in opposite directions.
→ ETH: Put Skew Z=3.51 — most extreme options fear in 90 days. MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value): 0.69, trading 31% below cost basis. Realized losses z=6.49. Either capitulation floor or more pain ahead.
Where are you sitting right now — cash, hold, or adding?
insight.catrix.xyz
ETH at 13/100. Is this panic or the bottom everyone's been waiting for?
AI Forecast
BTC: Bearish 📉 22/100 | ETH: Extreme Bearish 📉 13/100
Real yields still at a 6-month high (96th pct), stablecoin reserves down 21% this month — the sideline cash is gone and macro isn't helping.
Today's Focus: Derivatives
→ BTC: 25D Skew (Options Put/Call Imbalance): +0.22 — heavy put demand. But 3M futures basis hit 100th pct contango. Sellers and smart money pulling in opposite directions.
→ ETH: Put Skew Z=3.51 — most extreme options fear in 90 days. MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value): 0.69, trading 31% below cost basis. Realized losses z=6.49. Either capitulation floor or more pain ahead.
Where are you sitting right now — cash, hold, or adding?
insight.catrix.xyz
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Catrix Daily | Jun 8, 2026
On-chain screaming panic. Options traders quietly buying the dip. Who's right?
AI Forecast
BTC: Bearish 📉 22/100 | ETH: Extreme Bearish 📉 13/100
Stablecoin reserves down 24% this month — the dry powder that funds recoveries is evaporating. Real yields still at a 6-month high. No macro tailwind yet.
Today's Focus: Market Cycle
→ BTC: STH NUPL (Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized P/L): -0.236, capitulation. F&G (Fear & Greed): 12. Recent buyers deeply underwater — but call skew just hit 96.7th pct. Someone's positioning for a turn.
→ ETH: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value): 0.74 — trading 26% below cost basis. NUPL: -0.24, deep capitulation. Only 31% of supply in profit. Options skew Z=+2.03, contrarian upside bets piling in.
Does the smart money know something, or is it too early?
insight.catrix.xyz
On-chain screaming panic. Options traders quietly buying the dip. Who's right?
AI Forecast
BTC: Bearish 📉 22/100 | ETH: Extreme Bearish 📉 13/100
Stablecoin reserves down 24% this month — the dry powder that funds recoveries is evaporating. Real yields still at a 6-month high. No macro tailwind yet.
Today's Focus: Market Cycle
→ BTC: STH NUPL (Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized P/L): -0.236, capitulation. F&G (Fear & Greed): 12. Recent buyers deeply underwater — but call skew just hit 96.7th pct. Someone's positioning for a turn.
→ ETH: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value): 0.74 — trading 26% below cost basis. NUPL: -0.24, deep capitulation. Only 31% of supply in profit. Options skew Z=+2.03, contrarian upside bets piling in.
Does the smart money know something, or is it too early?
insight.catrix.xyz
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Same Market. Different Views.
Three AI expert views are now live in Catrix Reports:
- Checkmeowte: chain + short-term
- Benjameow Cowen: cycles & structure
- Plaฅ₿: scarcity & long-term
Fully AI-generated, institutional-grade analysis.
And yes — AI Vault uses these views before making its moves.
All in insight.catrix.xyz
Three AI expert views are now live in Catrix Reports:
- Checkmeowte: chain + short-term
- Benjameow Cowen: cycles & structure
- Plaฅ₿: scarcity & long-term
Fully AI-generated, institutional-grade analysis.
And yes — AI Vault uses these views before making its moves.
All in insight.catrix.xyz
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Catrix Daily | Jun 9, 2026
Over half of all BTC is now held at a loss. And yet — someone's quietly buying.
AI Forecast
BTC: Slightly Bearish 📉 33/100 | ETH: Extreme Bearish 📉 13/100
Real yield Z=2.31, 6-month high. Stablecoin reserves down 21% this month. Macro not helping.
Today's Focus: Supply Structure
→ BTC: Supply in Profit: 49.7% (2nd pct of 180D) — majority underwater for first time this cycle. But OTC desk inventory dropped 59% in 7 days (z>3.0). Someone's absorbing at scale, off exchange.
→ ETH: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value): 0.74 — 26% below cost basis. Exchange balance fell 2.6% this week while mid-tier holders added +127K ETH. Capitulation on one side, quiet accumulation on the other.
Are we closer to the floor than the data suggests?
insight.catrix.xyz
Over half of all BTC is now held at a loss. And yet — someone's quietly buying.
AI Forecast
BTC: Slightly Bearish 📉 33/100 | ETH: Extreme Bearish 📉 13/100
Real yield Z=2.31, 6-month high. Stablecoin reserves down 21% this month. Macro not helping.
Today's Focus: Supply Structure
→ BTC: Supply in Profit: 49.7% (2nd pct of 180D) — majority underwater for first time this cycle. But OTC desk inventory dropped 59% in 7 days (z>3.0). Someone's absorbing at scale, off exchange.
→ ETH: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value): 0.74 — 26% below cost basis. Exchange balance fell 2.6% this week while mid-tier holders added +127K ETH. Capitulation on one side, quiet accumulation on the other.
Are we closer to the floor than the data suggests?
insight.catrix.xyz
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Forwarded from Pavel Durov (Pavel Durov)
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Pavel Durov
Telegram is turning Apple Watch into a new entry point.
Maybe AI trading with Catrix lands on your wrist next.
Maybe AI trading with Catrix lands on your wrist next.
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Catrix Daily | Jun 10, 2026
BTC fear at 10. Someone just pulled $929M of ETH off exchanges. Two very different stories.
AI Forecast
BTC: Extreme Bearish 📉 13/100 | ETH: Bearish 📉 22/100
Real yields Z=2.53 — 6-month peak, 100th percentile. Macro is as hostile as it's been all cycle.
Today's Focus: Whale Holdings
→ BTC: Exchange Balance Δ30d: +63,190 BTC ($3.9B, Z=2.0) — coins flowing in, sell-side pressure building. F&G (Fear & Greed): 10. The crowd is panicking.
→ ETH: Exchange Balance Δ7d: -$929M — massive withdrawals contracting sell-side supply. Mid-tier holders (10-1k ETH) added +122K ETH this week. MVRV: 0.72, 1st percentile of 180 days. Someone's accumulating at the lows.
Does the ETH whale move change your read on the market?
insight.catrix.xyz
BTC fear at 10. Someone just pulled $929M of ETH off exchanges. Two very different stories.
AI Forecast
BTC: Extreme Bearish 📉 13/100 | ETH: Bearish 📉 22/100
Real yields Z=2.53 — 6-month peak, 100th percentile. Macro is as hostile as it's been all cycle.
Today's Focus: Whale Holdings
→ BTC: Exchange Balance Δ30d: +63,190 BTC ($3.9B, Z=2.0) — coins flowing in, sell-side pressure building. F&G (Fear & Greed): 10. The crowd is panicking.
→ ETH: Exchange Balance Δ7d: -$929M — massive withdrawals contracting sell-side supply. Mid-tier holders (10-1k ETH) added +122K ETH this week. MVRV: 0.72, 1st percentile of 180 days. Someone's accumulating at the lows.
Does the ETH whale move change your read on the market?
insight.catrix.xyz
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